By Nikita Saharia Chaturvedi
It came as a shock to the world, when on June 24, 2016, citizens of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union putting an end to a 40-year relationship. Known as “Brexit,” the aftermath of this step showed its mark in the money market, with the pound falling against the dollar. The repercussions of Britain’s exit from the EU, will be felt worldwide, as it’s the fifth largest economy in the world.
My Purchasing Center digs deeper into the much talked about exit of the UK, with Bindiya Vakil, Founder and CEO of Resilinc in a new podcast in which she examined the supply chain implications of Brexit.
Today we live in a globalized world where merchandise is multi-national and raw materials and parts used to make them originate in nations all over the world. “For example, a typical car may have parts originating from as many as 30 countries,” Vakil says. “The rules and regulations that govern international trade are a critical element of supply chains and of particular interest to procurement professionals who manage these complex relationships.”
The Brexit vote could have quite an effect on the overall supply chain impacting each and every aspect of it.
As one of the more globalized economies, the UK makes up 4% of world GDP. In 2014, was the ninth-largest exporter ($503 billion in 2014) and the fifth-largest importer ($802 billion in 2014). As such, some serious issues could arise for companies headquartered or manufacturing in the UK
From a procurement angle, more than 50% of the UK’s $500 billion in exports are bound for the European Union. With present account shortfalls at record levels, this fundamentally implies that the UK-based supply chain is profoundly reliant on access to the EU single market to sustain its vigorous financial health.
Qualms about the pound could bring procurement challenges, which will vary with a company’s dependability on the resources they source from the UK. Deutsche Bank has cautioned that the pound could drop further, and threaten inflation levels may get to a 25-year high of 5.2%.
Suppliers manufacturing within the UK that don’t import raw materials, but export finished goods should be able to offer price reductions to customers. At the same time, those that import materials and export may suffer monetary losses and falling gross margins as they may end up paying more for imported goods due to currency devaluation.
No wonder Brexit poses challenges. Acquiring affordable skilled labor is another concern. It may become more costly to hire, further squeezing margins for struggling businesses. As Vakil sees it, limited movement of labor is expected to play a large role in the availability of cheap and affordable labor and is a deterministic factor in Reslinc’s prediction of the decline of manufacturing activity within the UK. “In coming months, we expect most global companies with manufacturing facilities in the UK to consider plans to relocate operations in anticipation of upcoming labor shortages” she says.
On the other hand, UK exporters may no longer enjoy fast clearing through Customs.
“Brexit put trade deals into question, and what this means for many companies, is that their total landed cost will now be substantially different, if higher tariffs get imposed by the UK as a non EU member,” Vakil says. “Once the new rules are implemented, in the mid-term, logistics professionals could expect greater customs clearance timeframes on products exported to the EU.”
Brexit Opportunities and Risks for Supply Chain
The vote presents opportunities and risks for supply chain. Key risks being the following:
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Component prices going up.
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Landed cost of products increasing medium term with new tariffs going into play.
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Cost of labor and other essentials increasing in an inflationary scenario.
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Suppliers going into financial distress.